Comparison of trajectory and concentration methods in oil spill modelling at sea
- Authors: Tadej Ostanek Jurina, Helena Šoško, Dušan Žagar
- Citation: Acta hydrotechnica, vol. 27, no. 46, pp. 43-56, 2014.
- Abstract: Oil spills in the marine environment cannot be entirely prevented. In order to diminish their consequences numerous oil spreading and weathering models have been developed. The NAFTA3d model is based on the particle tracking method, its results are usually presented as oil concentrations at specified times. A new module based on the trajectory method showing the probability of oil slick occurrence at a certain location after a spill was added to the model. The article first describes both methods and functioning of the model. In the second part we present the results of performed simulations and analyse the suitability of the trajectory method by comparing concentrations and trajectories in the Gulf of Trieste and in the Northern Adriatic. In the third section we describe the strengths and weaknesses of the trajectory method. The study reveals that the new module is most suitable for oil spill response modelling, its major advantages being high computational speed as well as simple and efficient presentation of the entire area at risk on a single map. Finally, we propose a procedure for practical use of the trajectory method.
- Keywords: oil spill, NAFTA3d model, particle tracking method, trajectory method, concentration method, Gulf of Trieste, Northern Adriatic
- Full text: a46to.pdf
- References:
- Al-Rabeh, A.H., Lardner, R.W., Gunay, N. (2000). Gulfspill Version 2.0: a software package for oil spills in the Arabian Gulf, Environmental Modelling and Software 15, 425–442.
- AMEC Earth & Environmental. (2010). Spill Trajectory Modelling for the Hebron Project. St. John’s, Stantec Consulting Ltd.: 104 f.
- Apai, D. (2001). Oil Spill Fate and Trajectory Modelling in Cockburn Sound. Bachelor Thesis. Perth, The University of Western Australia, Department of Environmental Engineering: 101 f.
- ASCE Task Committee on Modeling of Oil Spills of the Water Resources Engineering Division. (1996). State-of-the-Art Review of Modeling Transport and Fate of Oil Spills, Journal of Hydraulic Engineering 122, 11: 594–609
- Azavedo, A., Oliveira, O., Fortuanto, A.B., Bertin, X. (2009). Application of an Euerian-Lagrangian oil spill modeling system to the Prestige accident: trajecotry analysis, Journal of Coastal Research 56, 777–781.
- Betancourt, F., Palacio, A., Rodriguez, A. (2005). Effects of the Mass Transfer process in Oil Spill, American Journal of Applied Sciences 2(5), 939–946.
- Blumberg, A.F., Mellor, G.L. (1987). A Description of a Three-Dimensional Coastal Ocean Circulation Model. In: Heaps, N.S. (ed.). Three Dimensonal Coastal Ocean Models. Washington, American Geophysical Union: p. 1–16.
- Bosnič, M. (2014). Ranljivost slovenske obale za onesnaženje z nafto. Diplomska naloga. Ljubljana, Univerza v Ljubljani, Fakulteta za gradbeništvo in geodezijo (samozaložba M. Bosnič): 38 p. (in Slovenian).
- Box, G.E.P., Muller, M.E. (1958). A Note on the Generation of Random Normal Deviates. The Annals of Mathematical statistics 29(2), 610–611.
- Chang, Y., Oey, L., Xu, F., Lu, H. (2011). 2010 oil spill: trajectory projections based on ensemble drifter analyses, Ocean Dynamics 61, 829–839.
- Delgado, L., Kumzerova, E., Martynov, M. (2006). Simulation of oil spill behaviour and response operations in PISCES, WIT Transactions on Ecology and the Environment 88, 279–292.
- Drozdowski, A., Nudds, S., Hannah, C.G., Niu. H., Peterson, I.K., Perrie, W.A. (2011). Review of Oil Spill Trajectory Modelling in the Presence of Ice. Canadian Technical Report of Hydrography and Ocean Sciences 274: 92 p.
- Elliott, A., Hurford, N., Penn, C. (1986). Shear diffusion and the spreading of oil slicks, Marine Pollution Bulletin 17, 308–313.
- Fingas, M. (2011a). Introduction. In: Fingas, M. (ed.). Oil Spill Science and Technology : prevention, response, and clean up. 1st ed. Amsterdam idr., Elsevier: p. 3–6.
- Fingas, M. (2011b). Introduction to Spill Modeling. In: Fingas, M (ed.). Oil Spill Science and Technology : prevention, response, and clean up. 1st ed. Amsterdam idr., Elsevier: 187–200.
- Fingas, M. (2004). Modeling evaporation using models that are not boundary-layer regulated, Journal of Hazardous Materials 107, 27–36.
- Galt, J.A. (1997). The Integration of Trajectory Models and Analysis into Spill Response Information Systems, Spill Science and Technology Bulletin 4(2), 123–129.
- Galuf, S. (2005). Simulacija razlitja nafte v Tržaškem zalivu. Diplomska naloga. Ljubljana, Univerza v Ljubljani, Fakulteta za gradbeništvo in geodezijo (samozaložba S. Galuf): 71 p. (in Slovenian).
- Gentle, J.E. (2003). Random Number Generation and Monte Carlo Methods. New York idr., Springer: p. 2.
- ITOPF. (2015). Oil tanker spill statistics 2014.
- Jeglič, T. (2010). Modeliranje razlitja nafte v Tržaškem zalivu. Diplomska naloga. Ljubljana, Univerza v Ljubljani, Fakulteta za Gradbeništvo in Geodezijo (samozaložba T. Jeglič): 51 p. (in Slovenian).
- Koutitas, C., O’Connor, B. (1980). Modeling three-dimensional wind induced flows, Journal of the Hydraulics Division 106, 1843–1865.
- Lehr, W., Robert, J., Evans, M., Simecek-Beatty, D., Overstreet, R. (2002). Revisions of the ADIOS oil spill model, Environmental Modelling and Software 17, 191–199.
- Ličer, M., Žagar, D., Jeromel, M., Vodopivec, M. (2012). Numerični modeli za določanje stanja morja v Jadranskem morju, Ujma 26, 164–167.
- Mackay, D., Patterson, S., Nadeau, S. (1980). Calculation of the Evaporation Rate of Volatile Liquids. Proceedinsg of the National Conference on Control of Hazardous Material Spills, Louisville, Kentucky: p. 361–368.
- Malačič, V., Petelin, B., Vodopivec, M. (2012). Topographic control of wind-driven circulation in the northern Adriatic, Journal of geophysical research, 117, C06032: p. 1–16.
- Mesarić, M., Likić, J., Safner, T., Peleš, P., Doboš, M., Božić, B., Gredelj, M., Delić, D., Gundac, I., Harmel, M., Strmšnik, K., Privšek, A., Gaurina-Međimurec, N., Valić, J., Zec, D., Gelo, B., Holcer, D., Mackelworth, P.C., Lazar, B. (2015). Strateška studija o vjeroajatno značajnom utjecaju na okoliš Okvirnog plana i programa istraživanja i eksploatacije ugljikovodika na Jadranu. Zagreb, Ministarstvo gospodarstva Republike Hrvatske: str. 197.
- Ostanek Jurina, T. (2015). Modeliranje širjenja nafte v morju po metodi trajektorij: primerjava z metodo sledenja delcev. Diplomska naloga. Ljubljana, Univerza v Ljubljani, Fakulteta za gradbeništvo in geodezijo (samozaložba T. Ostanek Jurina): 44 p. (in Slovenian).
- Rajar, R., Četina, M. (1997). Hydrodynamic and Water Quality Modelling: An Experience, Ecological Modelling 101, 195–207.
- Reed, M., Johansen, Ø., Brandvik, P.J., Daling, P., Lewis, A., Fiocco, R., Mackay, D., Prentki, R. (1999). Oil Spill Modeling towards the Close of the 20th Century: Overview of the State of the Art, Spill Science and Technology Bulletin 5(1), 3–16.
- Šaponja, M. (2014). Modeliranje izhlapevanja nafte po metodi Fingas. Diplomska naloga. Ljubljana, Univerza v Ljubljani, Fakulteta za gradbeništvo in geodezijo (samozaložba M. Šaponja): 48 f. (in Slovenian).
- Simecek-Beatty, D. (2011). Oil Spill Trajectory Forecasting Uncertainty and Emergency Response. In: Fingas, M (ed.). Oil Spill Science and Technology : prevention, response, and clean up. 1st ed. Amsterdam idr., Elsevier: 275–299.
- Surfer User’s Guide. Contouring and 3D Surface Mapping for Scientists and Engineers. (2002). Colorado, Golden Software: 664 p.
- Širca, A. (1992). Modeliranje transporta polutantov po metodi sledenja delcev. Magistrska naloga. Univerza v Ljubljani, Fakultera za arhitekturo, gradbeništvo in geodezijo (samozaložba A. Širca): 87 p. (in Slovenian).
- Šoško, H. (2012). Modeliranje širjenja nafte v morskem okolju po metodi trajektorij. Diplomska naloga. Ljubljana, Univerza v Ljubljani, Fakulteta za gradbeništvo in geodezijo (samozaložba H. Šoško): 44 p. (in Slovenian).
- Žagar, D. (1994). Tridimenzijski model za simulacijo širjenja nafte. Magistrska naloga. Ljubljana, Univerza v Ljubljani, Fakulteta za arhitekturo, gradbeništvo in geodezijo (samozaložba D. Žagar): 67 p. (in Slovenian).
- Žagar, D., Četina, M. (2011). Končno poročilo o izdelavi strokovne naloge NAFTA3d. Ljubljana, Nacionalni inštitut za biologijo: 22 p.
- Žagar, D., Ličer, M., Malačič, V. (2011). Modeliranje razlitja nafte v morskem okolju. V: Eberlinc, M. (ur.), Širok, B. (ur.). Kuhljevi dnevi, 22. september 2011, Mengeš. Zbornik del. Ljubljana, Slovensko društvo za mehaniko: 283-290.
- Žagar, D. Ramšak, V., Ličer, M., Petelin, B., Malačič, V. (2012). Uporaba numeričnih modelov ob razlitjih nafte na morju, Ujma 26, 168-174.