Hydrological forecasting system of the Slovenian Environment Agency
- Authors: Sašo Petan, Andrej Golob, Marjan Moderc
- Citation: Acta hydrotechnica, vol. 28, no. 49, pp. 119-131, 2015.
- Abstract: The hydrological forecasting system of the Slovenian Environment Agency has been in operation since 2012. It enables detailed insight into the current hydrological state of rivers and provides river discharge and water level forecasts for chosen forecasting points up to six days in advance. As a rule, the system forecasts are updated every hour for a series of model setups that cover different modeling domains with various meteorological forecasts sources for the hydrological model and types of the hydrodynamic model. Beside a detailed description of the hydrological forecasting system design and operation, the article also demonstrates the results of a short forecasting performance analysis. The analysis has shown very good agreement between the measured and forecasted river discharges. The simulation results for bigger river catchments or catchments with a slower hydrological response are relatively reliable up to 36 hours before the occurrence of the hydrological event. This time interval drops to 18 hours for small river catchments and down to 6 hours only for the smallest or the torrential river catchments. The positive effect of the measured discharge data assimilation on the simulation results is present in the first 12 and no more than 18 hours after the time of simulation.
- Keywords: hydrodynamic models, hydrological forecasting, hydrological forecasting system, forecasting performance analysis, Slovenia
- Full text: a49sp.pdf
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