Long-term behaviour of precipitation at three stations in Serbia
Dolgoročne spremembe padavin na treh padavinskih postajah v Srbiji
- Avtorji: Jasna Plavšić, Borislava Blagojević, Andrijana Todorović, Jovan Despotović
- Citat: Acta hydrotechnica, vol. 29, no. 50, pp. 23-36, 2016.
- Povzetek: V članku smo analizirali podatke o padavinah na treh padavinskih postajah v Srbiji, kjer je med katastrofalnimi poplavami, ki so maja 2014 prizadele območja v Srbiji, Bosni in Hercegovini ter na Hrvaškem, padlo največ padavin. Cilj je bil prepoznati padavinska odstopanja z analizo trendov različnih padavinskih parametrov, vključno s skupno količino padavin, maksimalno količino padavin trajanja od enega dneva do sedmih dni, in pogostostjo padavin, ki presegajo določen prag, ob upoštevanju večdesetletnih nihanj v podatkih, ki bi lahko razložili razlike. Upoštevali smo tri postaje v Srbiji: Loznico z 62-letnim, Valjevo s 65-letnim in Beograd z 91-letnim nizom meritev. Rezultati kažejo, da se obnašanje padavin na teh postajah v daljšem časovnem obdobju nekoliko razlikuje. Postaja Loznica izkazuje trend znatnega povečanja nekaterih parametrov, drugi dve postaji pa ne. Nihanja na teh treh postajah se namreč nekoliko razlikujejo in težko je ugotoviti, ali so trendi, kot smo jih zaznali, v skladu z nihanji v preteklosti, zaznanimi v najdaljšem nizu za Beograd. Na podlagi analize daljšega časovnega niza mesečnih količin padavin smo prepoznali več vzorcev, ki kažejo na to, da je obnašanje letnih nizov padavin zelo zapleteno. V majskem nizu podatkov za nobeno postajo nismo prepoznali značilnega naraščajočega trenda.
- Ključne besede: ekstremne padavine, trend, vztrajnost v daljšem časovnem obdobju, nihanja z manjšo pogostostjo, poplave, poplave maja 2014 v Srbiji
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