Analyses of the Zagreb Grič observatory air temperatures indices for the period 1881 to 2017
Analize indeksov temperature zraka observatorija Zagreb Grič za obdobje 1881-2017
- Avtorji: Ognjen Bonacci, Tanja Roje-Bonacci
- Citat: Acta hydrotechnica, vol. 31, no. 54, pp. 67-85, 2018. https://doi.org/10.15292/acta.hydro.2018.05
- Povzetek: Članek obravnava časovne vrste značilnih (minimalnih, srednjih in maksimalnih) dnevnih, mesečnih in letnih temperatur zraka, izmerjenih v Observatoriju Zagreb Grič v obdobju od 1. 1. 1881 do 31. 12. 2017. Analizirali smo pet indeksov temperature zraka: (1) absolutni minimalni letni, mesečni in dnevni; (2) srednji letni, mesečni in dnevni minimalni; (3) povprečni srednji letni, mesečni in dnevni; (4) srednji letni, mesečni in dnevni maksimalni; (5) absolutni letni, mesečni in dnevni. Za opis sprememb režimov letnih temperatur v obdobju 137 let smo uporabili metodo umerjenih delnih vsot (Rescaled Adjusted Partial Sums – RAPS), regresijsko in korelacijsko analizo, F-test in t-test. Pri uporabi metode umerjenih delnih vsot (RAPS) smo pet analiziranih letnih časovnih vrst indeksa temperature zraka v obdobju 137 let razdelili v dve podobdobji. Analize, opravljene za potrebe tega prispevka, so pokazale, da so minimalne temperature zraka začele naraščati leta 1970, srednje temperature zraka leta 1988 in maksimalne temperature zraka leta 1998. Rezultati t-testov kažejo ekstremno statistično značilno povečanje povprečnih vrednosti temperature zraka v drugem (zadnjem) podobdobju. Rezultati t-testov mesečnih temperatur izkazujejo statistično značilne razlike med praktično vsemi petimi pari (razen v dveh primerih) analiziranih mesečnih podserij indeksov temperature zraka za obdobje od januarja do avgusta. Od septembra do decembra razlike pri večini parov (razen v šestih primerih) analiziranih mesečnih podserij indeksov temperature zraka niso statistično značilne. Zaključimo lahko, da je bil vpliv mestnega toplotnega otoka na naraščanje temperatur v zadnjem času večji kot vpliv globalnega segrevanja. Zdi se, da je urbanizacija vplivala najprej in predvsem na minimalne temperature in da je bil vpliv urbanizacije v Zagrebu večji na minimalne kot na maksimalne temperature. Trend naraščanja v časovnih vrstah maksimalnih temperatur se je začel 20 let pozneje.
- Ključne besede: minimalne, srednje in maksimalne dnevne, mesečne in letne temperature zraka, globalno segrevanje, mestni toplotni otok, trend, sprememba, Zagreb Grič (Hrvaška)
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