Assessing the role of rainfall and antecedent soil moisture conditions on soil moisture increase
Analiza vloge padavin in predhodne namočenosti zemljine na naraščanje vlažnosti tal
- Avtorji: Elisa Vialette, Katarina Zabret
- Citat: Acta hydrotechnica, vol. 39, no. 70, pp. 1-13, 2026. https://doi.org/10.15292/acta.hydro.2026.01
- Povzetek: Vlažnost tal ima pomembno vlogo pri uravnavanju naravnih procesov, vključno z gibanjem vode v hidrološkem krogu. Eden od glavnih dejavnikov, ki vplivajo na vsebnost vode v tleh, so padavine, odziv vlage v tleh pa je poleg lastnosti padavin odvisen še od drugih kazalnikov, kot so globina, vodozadrževalne lastnosti tal, tip dal, pokrovnost in raba tal. Ti kazalniki določajo, s kakšno dinamiko bo prišlo do dviga vsebnosti vode v tleh, ki običajno ne sledi dinamiki merjenih padavin. Z namenom ocene hitrosti odziva vlažnosti tal na padavine ter analizo vpliva kazalnikov padavin in predhodne namočenosti tal na povečanje vsebnosti vode v tleh smo uporabili model odločitvenih dreves in model naključnega gozda. Upoštevali smo podatke, zbrane v dveh letih meritev na treh različnih globinah na travnati površini majhnega parka v Ljubljani. Naraščanje vsebnosti vode v tleh na globinah 16 cm in 51 cm je pogojeno predvsem z maksimalno 20-minutno intenziteto, zabeleženo v obdobju 6 ur pred pričetkom naraščanja vrednosti. V globljih plasteh (74 cm) pa je odziv pogojen s stanjem predhodne vlažnosti vsaj 24 ur prej oziroma s padavinami v preteklih 7 dneh.
- Ključne besede: Vsebnost vode v tleh, padavine, predhodne razmere, odločitvena drevesa, naključni gozd.
- Polno besedilo: a39ev.pdf
- Viri:
- ARSO (2024). Arhiv meteoroloških meritev/ Meteorological measurements archive. Dostopno na: http://www.meteo.si/met/sl/archive/ (pridobljeno 13. 8. 2024).
- Brown, D. (2021). How do Decision Trees and Random Forests Work? Towards data science. Dostopno na: https://towardsdatascience.com/how-do-decision-trees-and-random-forests-work-66a1094e6c5d/ (pridobljeno 6. 5. 2025).
- Demšar, J., Curk, T., Erjavec, A., Gorup, Č., Hočevar, T., Milutinović, M., Možina, M., Polajnar, M., Toplak, M., Starič, A., Štajdohar, M., Umek, L., Žagar, L., Žbontar, J., Žitnik, M., Zupan, B. (2013). Orange: Data Mining Toolbox in Python. Journal of Machine Learning Research 14, 2349–2353.
- Dong, J., Ochsner, T. E. (2018). Soil Texture Often Exerts a Stronger Influence Than Precipitation on Mesoscale Soil Moisture Patterns. Water Resources Research 54(3), 2199–2211. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017WR021692.
- Gimbel, K. F., Puhlmann, H., Weiler, M. (2016). Does drought alter hydrological functions in forest soils? Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 20(3), 1301–1317. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1301-2016.
- Gruchot, A., Zydroń, T., Wałęga, A., Pařílková, J., Stanisz, J. (2022). Influence of Rainfall Events and Surface Inclination on Overland and Subsurface Runoff Formation on Low-Permeable Soil. Sustainability 14(9), 4962. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14094962.
- Haiyan, D. A. I., Haimei, W. A. N. G. (2021). Influence of rainfall events on soil moisture in a typical steppe of Xilingol. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 121, 102964. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2020.102964.
- Hui, S., Guo, L., Liu, H., Wu, X., Lan, P., Boyer, E. W., Mello, C. R., Li, H. (2025). Spatiotemporal dynamics of soil moisture and the occurrence of hysteresis during seasonal transitions in a headwater catchment. Geoderma 454, 117169. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoderma.2025.117169.
- Koehn, C. R., Petrie, M. D., Bradford, J. B., Litvak, M. E., Strachan, S. (2021). Seasonal Precipitation and Soil Moisture Relationships Across Forests and Woodlands in the Southwestern United States. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 126(4), e2020JG005986. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JG005986.
- Li, X., Wei, Y., Li, F. (2021). Optimality of antecedent precipitation index and its application. Journal of Hydrology 595, 126027. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126027.
- Liu, S., Van Meerveld, I., Zhao, Y., Wang, Y., Kirchner, J. W. (2024). Seasonal dynamics and spatial patterns of soil moisture in a loess catchment. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 28(1), 205–216. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-205-2024.
- Marchi, L., Borga, M., Preciso, E., Gaume, E. (2010). Characterisation of selected extreme flash floods in Europe and implications for flood risk management. Journal of Hydrology 397, 118-133. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.07.017.
- Moraes, M. A. E. D., Filho, W. M. M., Mendes, R. M., Bortolozo, C. A., Metodiev, D., Andrade, M. R. M. D., Egas, H. M., Mendes, T. S. G., Pampuch, L. A. (2024). Antecedent Precipitation Index to Estimate Soil Moisture and Correlate as a Triggering Process in the Occurrence of Landslides. International Journal of Geosciences 15(01), 70–86. https://doi.org/10.4236/ijg.2024.151006.
- Ljutic, A., Moore, J., Ali, G., Van Eerd, L., Macrae, M. L., Wagner-Riddle, C. (2024). Variable soil moisture responses to rainfall events in fields under different management practices. Hydrological Processes 38, e15242. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.15242.
- Nielsen, M., Cook, B. I., Marvel, K., Ting, M., Smerdon, J. E. (2024). The Changing Influence of Precipitation on Soil Moisture Drought With Warming in the Mediterranean and Western North America. Earth’s Future 12(5), e2023EF003987. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003987.
- Ochsner, T.E., Cosh, M.H., Cuenca, R.H., Dorigo, W.A., Draper, C.S., Hagimoto, Y., Kerr, Y.H., Larson, K.M., Njoku, E.G., Small, E.E., Zreda, M. (2013). State of the Art in Large-Scale Soil Moisture Monitoring. Soil Science Society of America Journal 77, 1888-1919. https://doi.org/10.2136/sssaj2013.03.0093.
- Peng, C., Zeng, J., Chen, K.-S., Li, Z., Ma, H., Zhang, X., Shi, P., Wang, T., Yi, L., Bi, H. (2023). Global spatiotemporal trend of satellite-based soil moisture and its influencing factors in the early 21st century. Remote Sensing of Environment 291, 113569. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2023.113569.
- Radulović, L., Bezak, N., Šraj, M. (2023). The influence of vegetation on the microstructure and erosivity of precipitation. Acta hydrotechnica 57–79. https://doi.org/10.15292/acta.hydro.2023.04.
- Stahl, M. O., McColl, K. A. (2022). The Seasonal Cycle of Surface Soil Moisture. Journal of Climate 35(15), 4997–5012.
- Sušnik, A., Pogačar, T., Gregorič, G., Roškar, J., Ceglar, A. (2010). Establishment of agricultural drought monitoring at different spatial scales in southeastern Europe. Acta Agriculturae Slovenica 95, 231–243. https://doi.org/10.14720/aas.2010.95.3.14768.
- Vrščaj, B., Grčman, H., Kralj, T. (2019). Klasifikacija tal Slovenije 2019: sistem za opisovanje in poimenovanje tal Slovenije (in Slovenian). 156 p. https://www.gov.si/assets/ministrstva/MOPE/Okolje/Tla/Klasifikacija_tal_Slovenije.pdf.
- Whiteley, J.S., Chambers, J.E., Uhlemann, S., Wilkinson, P.B., Kendall, J.M. (2019). Geophysical Monitoring of Moisture-Induced Landslides: A Review. Reviews of Geophysics 57, 106–145. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018RG000603.
- Zabret, K., Lebar, K., Šraj, M. (2023). Temporal response of urban soil water content in relation to the rainfall and throughfall dynamics in the open and below the trees. Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics 71(2), 210–220. https://doi.org/10.2478/johh-2023-0007.
- Zabret, K., Rakovec, J., Šraj, M. (2018). Influence of meteorological variables on rainfall partitioning for deciduous and coniferous tree species in urban area. Journal of Hydrology 558, 29–41. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.01.025.
- Zabret, K., Šraj, M. (2018). Spatial variability of throughfall under single birch and pine tree canopies / Prostorska spremenljivost prepuščenih padavin pod krošnjama breze in bora. Acta hydrotechnica 31(54), 1–20.
- Zhu, P., Jia, X., Zhao, C., Shao, M. (2022). Long-term soil moisture evolution and its driving factors across China’s agroecosystems. Agricultural Water Management 269, 107735. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2022.107735.