The influence of the choice of method on the results of frequency analysis of peaks, volumes and durations of flood waves of the Sava River in Litija
Vpliv izbire metode na rezultate verjetnostnih analiz konic, volumnov in trajanj visokovodnih valov Save v Litiji
- Avtorji: Mojca Šraj, Nejc Bezak, Mitja Brilly
- Citat: Acta hydrotechnica, vol. 25, no. 42, pp. 41-58, 2012.
- Povzetek: Kompleksni hidrološki pojavi, kot so poplave, se vedno pojavljajo kot posledica več med seboj odvisnih slučajnih spremenljivk (npr. konica, volumen, trajanje poplavnega vala). Z verjetnostno analizo le ene spremenljivke lahko zato le približno ocenimo verjetnost pojava določenega dogodka. Za popolno razumevanje vseh treh spremenljivk in njihovo medsebojno povezanost je nujen multivariaten statistični pristop. Predpogoj za to je obsežna analiza posameznih spremenljivk. V raziskavi smo obravnavali 58 visokovodnih valov z vodomerne postaje Litija na reki Savi. Verjetnostno analizo smo izvedli za vse tri spremenljivke, ki določajo visokovodni val. S statističnimi in grafičnimi testi smo primerjali v praksi najpogosteje uporabljene porazdelitvene funkcije in načine ocenjevanja parametrov porazdelitev. Ugotovili smo, da je konice in trajanja valov najbolje opisala logaritemsko Pearsonova III porazdelitev, volumne pa Pearsonova III porazdelitev. Pri večini porazdelitev je najboljše ocene parametrov izkazala metoda momentov L, ki se v slovenski hidrološki praksi do sedaj še ne uporablja.
- Ključne besede: verjetnostna analiza, metoda momentov, metoda momentov L, metoda največjega verjetja, robne porazdelitve, statistični testi
- Polno besedilo: a42ms.pdf
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